Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Bayrou & Europe

I remember the tangible feeling, when I moved to France in 2001, of bearing witness to the birth of something new and exciting, something that doesn't come along very often: a new identity. A European identity.

Two events brought it home. The first was the passage to the Euro, when half a continent, transformed into tourists without having left home, discovered a new and common currency, examining each bill for the first time, double checking coins at the cash register, and doing hurried mental conversions to get a sense of how much they'd just spent.

The second was the film, "L'Auberge Espagnol", which told the story of a young French exchange student's year abroad in Madrid, and how, through the friendships he forms with his roommates, all, like him, adrift and far from home, they arrive at a common language to define themselves. And it occured to me, in a way that was somehow very moving, that these twenty-somethings might be the first generation to really think of themselves, not just as French or English or Spanish or German, but as European.

Three years later, in May 2005, France became the first country to reject the European constitution, and for all intents and purposes, that romantic vision was dead. There were plenty of valid reasons to object to the text, not the least of which being it was impossible to read for anyone but a legal expert with months of free time. But at the time, the major issues that shaped public opinion were:

1. A tangible disconnect between "Brussels" (the administrative seat of the EU but also a metaphor for EU bureaucracy and regulatory interference) and "La France d'en bas" (the French heartland);
2. A sense that, with expansion of the EU from 15 to 25 nations, the European Project was careening out of control;
3. A strident xenophobia grafted onto a fear and distrust of market liberalism;
4. And the French urge, its national genius, to simply say, Non!

I mention it because yesterday, François Bayrou presented his ideas (French language article) about the future of Europe to an enthusiastic crowd in Strasbourg, a seven-point plan for common action on the economy, diplomacy, defense, environment, energy, immigration and development, and scientific research.

He described his vision for a two-tiered Europe, consisting of a larger union based on a common market and shared legal framework, and a core Europe made up of the Euro-zone countries that would co-ordinate their policies on global issues. "A legal Europe and a political Europe," as he put it.

He distinguished himself from Sarkozy, who has suggested passing an abridged version of the constitution by parliamentary vote, by calling instead for a more compact constitution that could be read and understood by everyone, incorporating the reservations of its opponents, which he would put to a national referendum.

And he marked his differences with Ségolène Royal by stressing the need to maintain the European Central Bank's autonomy to set interest rates and money supply for the Euro-zone.

As for the hot button issue, Turkey's admission to the EU, he expressed his personal opposition to it while committing himself to living up to France's previous commitments to openly consider its application.

All in all, it strikes me as a principled vision: realistic, practical, one that respectfully takes into account France's reservations with the institutions of Europe without pandering or demagoguery.

Bayrou keeps hitting all the right notes, and it's increasingly reflected in the polls where he's consistently garnering 14% of the first round vote. Not bad for a guy who was locked in the 6-9% range as recently as four months ago. In fact, his rise in popularity is quickly becoming the story of the campaign. Should he pierce the 20% barrier, that is, the threshhold where he becomes a "realistic" candidate and not just a wasted vote, the momentum could become self-reinforcing. At that point, the only thing that could keep him out of the second round would be the candidate himself. After all, this is the man once described as having all the charisma of a coffee table.

Posted by Judah in:  La Presidentielle   

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