Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Eyeball To Eyeball

Events in the Persian Gulf are either heading for a bang or a whimper. Either way, it's going to be mettle-testing time for the next week or so:

1. In remarks today about the 15 Bristish sailors detained by Iran, Tony Blair stated, "They have to release them. If not, then this will move into a different phase."
2. Meanwhile, the 5th Fleet began a training exercise involving two carrier groups, 100 aircraft, and 10,000 personnel just off the coast of Iran. The money quote? "Kevin Aandahl, a US navy commander, declined to say when plans for the exercises had been drawn up."
3. In a (French language) article last week, the Russian news agency RIA Novosti cited Russian military experts to the effect that the US will unleash a massive aerial bombardment of Iran in the first week of April.

Of course, Iran could still release the sailors, everyone could calm down a notch, and the uranium enrichment negotiations could get jump-started. But we're getting to that point where if someone doesn't blink soon, it'll be too late to walk this one back from the brink.

Update: Meanwhile, in support of the whimper option, from an interview with Financial Times:

Nicholas Burns, the man at the heart of the US administration's policy on Iran for the past two years, insists that Iran's leadership is divided, its nuclear programme is less advanced than many think and that the world is stepping up the pressure on Tehran.

As a result, he concludes, there is still time to reach a negotiated solution on a dispute others fear could end in military conflict.

Update, Take Two: And in support of the bang option, another article from RIA Novosti:

Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran's borders, a high-ranking security source said Tuesday.

"The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran," the official said, adding that the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched.

Update, Take Three: The Economist weighs in on why Iran acted up now:

Iran’s seizure of the British personnel thus may be a sign that Iran is feeling squeezed. But squeezed is not the same as weak. Iran hawks believe that the Islamic Republic has “sleeper cells” in Europe, America and elsewhere standing by ready to commit terrorist acts. The kidnapping is one way of reminding negotiating partners that Iran can be a great deal of trouble when it wants to be.

Posted by Judah in:  Iran   

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