Tuesday, April 24, 2007

The Fight For The Center Heats Up

With the second round of the French presidential election hinging on who grabs François Bayrou's first-round voters, both Ségolène Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy have basically taken off the gloves to capture them.

After correctly resisting, before the first round, any suggestion of an eventual governing coalition with Bayrou's center-right UDF party, Royal was more open to the idea today. When asked whether, in the event of Bayrou's support, she would name members of the UDF as members of her government, she responded, "Of course, that's what a presidential majority means." [Translated from the French.]

Sarkozy, unsurprisingly, has chosen another, more violent approach. Having already picked off a number of UDF heavyweights unhappy with Bayrou's veer towards the left before the first round, Sarkozy today picked up the endorsement of the UDF mayor of Rouen, the largest city governed by the UDF. And while ruling out the idea of taking over the UDF from the inside with the help of disgruntled old-timers due to the party's protective governing regulations, he floated the idea of creating a new center-right party, independent of his own UMP, but still part of the governing majority. Which would effectively serve as a refuge for right-of-center UDF members who are uncomfortable with the party's new social democrat identity but hesitant to join the Gaullist UMP.

The calculus behind both candidates' moves is clear. A month after the Presidential election, France will vote again, this time for parliamentary elections. And one of the consequences of a governing coalition is a parliamentary ceasefire among the coalition parties. So, for instance, in 2002, the UMP didn't field a candidate in any district held by the much weaker UDF. Royal didn't go so far as to offer Bayrou the same deal, which is why she used the phrase "presidential majority" as opposed to "governing majority". But she didn't rule it out, either. Sarkozy's comments, on the other hand, were a clear ultimatum, both to Bayrou and any UDF parliamentarian who doesn't want to see a UMP challenge to his seat.

In the meantime, Bayrou has announced a press conference for tomorrow to discuss his views of the two candidates. It seems a little early for him to make any pronouncement, given what's been put on the table so far. But the campaigns are working overtime right now, so a deal could already be in the works. My hunch is he's playing now for the 2012 presidential election. And as much as his campaign was based on independence, five more years in the wilderness won't position him very well for it. And five years as Sarkozy's lap dog wouldn't be any better. So I wouldn't be surprised if he takes Royal's best offer and describes it as the government of national unity he was calling for two weeks ago.

One thing's for sure: The next two weeks are going to be very, very entertaining.

Posted by Judah in:  La Presidentielle   

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