Saturday, April 28, 2007

Win-Win-Lose Scenario

By all accounts, the face-off between Ségolène Royal and François Bayrou offered no real surprises, and more closely resembled a "dialogue", as Royal described it, than a debate, as was announced. Points of convergence on social policy were readily identified and disagreements on economic policy were expressed forcefully, but without any bitterness or discord. From the start, both candidate and also-ran ruled out the possibility of an endorsement coming out of the pourparler. But although it's still unclear how many people it actually reached (the live internet feed was unable to withstand the bandwidth demand, and the only other option was a radio broadcast) the debate seemed to be a win-win-lose proposition.

Judging from the uniformly positive reaction -- even among left-leaning Socialists -- to the way in which she stood her ground on her economic platform (the most traditionally Socialist aspect of her "Presidential Pact"), Royal clearly managed to solidify her position within her own camp, which had begun to seem shaky. As for Bayrou, he reasserted both his relevancy and his independence, while still managing to give Royal's campaign a boost.

The big loser of the debate, as Socialist Party general secretary François Hollande correctly pointed out, was the "absent one": Nicolas Sarkozy. He tried to paint the familiar portrait of himself as a victim, and accused Royal and Bayrou of confusing an election that the French people had hoped to clarify. But whether or not they're true, the accusations that he tried to keep the debate from taking place reinforced all the fears of the anti-Sarkozy voting bloc and have become the narrative context of the entire episode. So while he probably didn't alienate any of his supporters, neither did he convince any of the remaining undecided voters that the softer, gentler Sarkozy on display since last Sunday night is the genuine article.

Royal took a major gamble this past week, first by reaching out to Bayrou, then by standing up to him, and it  seems to have paid off. But there's no let up this week. Tuesday is May Day (the traditional leftist May 1 demonstrations which this year have turned into a nation-wide campaign rally for Royal), followed immediately by the debate between Sarkozy and Royal. 

Also on May 1st, the extreme-right National Front's annual Joan of Arc Day counter-rally, where Jean-Marie Le Pen is expected to announce his intentions for the second-round. Most analysts already count Le Pen's first-round voters among Sarkozy's second-round total. But something tells me that's pre-mature. According to exit polls, Sarkozy already peeled off a substantial amount of Le Pen's voters in the first round. What's left are the hardcore fanatics who, regardless of any personal preference for Sarkozy, will follow Le Pen's instructions loyally. And the authoritarian extreme right candidate is far less likely than Bayrou to "liberate" his voters. Should he give the order to stay home on May 6, the tenor of the race will change dramatically.

I'll be heading up to Paris on Monday to cover the demonstrations and the rest of the campaign from there. So posting might be light, but I'll do my best to mention any important developments.

Posted by Judah in:  La Presidentielle   

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