Saturday, October 20, 2007

Clear Victories, Clear Defeats

I don't really know the inner workings of Iranian politics well enough to know whether Ali Larijani's resignation as chief nuclear negotiator is as bad as it seems. John Bolton called it "a clear victory for Ahmadinejad", which is reason enough for me to withhold judgment. Larijani always struck me as a tough and shrewd negotiator, almost more dangerous than Ahmadinejad in his ability to make the Iranian bargaining position sound very reasonable. (Of course, if you take away the assumption that the Iranians will use their nuclear fuel enrichment technology to achieve nuclear weapons capacity, as well as the assumption that the Iranians armed with a nuclear weapon will be an uncontainable menace to the regional and global balance of power, the Iranian bargaining position is pretty reasonable.)

Larijani's resignation will inevitably effect the negotiations, if only to slow them down for the time it takes for the new principals to feel out and take their measure of each other. And that, I'm afraid, is bad news. I'm increasingly pessimistic about where this standoff is heading. While Iran has skillfully built tactical partnerships to strengthen its position, the Bush administration's approach has alienated us from the international support we need to exert the kind of pressure that might make a difference in Iran's decision-making circles. It also appears to be hardening the opinions of Iran's decision-making circles.

Even worse, having painted itself into a corner with bellicose language and aggressive posturing, I don't see how the Bush administration can conceivably walk its negotiating line back without in effect losing face and appearing weak. That they were able to do it with North Korea is mainly due to the cover provided by the Six Party talks and the unified position of the Chinese and Russians. That isn't the case with Iran, and the stakes in that part of the world don't really allow for signs of weakness.

Which leaves us moving in one direction, the worst possible one in my opinion. I hope something changes to throw the switch. Unfortunately, I think time's running out for that to happen.

Posted by Judah in:  Iran   

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