Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Whose Estimate?

One quick afterthought about the NIE finding on Iran's nuclear weapons program. Two weeks ago, Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher made the following remarks:

"Iran is deadly dangerous. They have been isolated from us for a very, very long time, and we don't have very good intelligence. I am glad we use a lot of international intelligence, especially the French and (the U.K.'s) MI6," she told reporters.

Asked if the U.S. administration's warnings about Iran's alleged secret nuclear weapons program should be believed, Tauscher said, "You shouldn't, you should believe the French."

So if the US depends on France for its Iran intel, what does France have to say about Iran's weapons program? Well, it just so happens that Herve Morin, France's Defense Minister, made the following remarks in Abu Dhabi in late October:

Our intelligence, corroborated by that of other countries, gives us the opposite impression... If Baradei is right, there is no reason for Iran not to allow the IAEA to carry out its inspections...

The impression he was referring to was Mohamed ElBaradei's announcement that no proof exists of a military component for Iran's nuclear program. So far I haven't seen a French response to the NIE. But it wouldn't surprise me if they don't call too much attention to the discrepancy, seeing as France is increasingly becoming the fulcrum of the diplomatic effort to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.

From what I can tell, Israel is the only country to challenge the American NIE.

Update: I just found an excerpt of the French Foreign Ministry's statement:

"It appears that Iran is not respecting its international obligations. We must keep up the pressure on Iran ... we will continue to work on the introduction of restrictive measures in the framework of the United Nations."

Not terribly upbeat. But the French position has always been pretty tough on Iran. 

[Note: I flagged both of these stories at the time, here and here, where you can find the links. But it seemed worthwhile re-posting the comments.]

Posted by Judah in:  Iran   

Comments (0)

e-mail  |  del.icio.us  |  digg